2022年泸定MS6.8地震震前区域变形背景及同震形变特征

doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2024.03.008

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

文中利用Sentinel-1 SAR影像获取了2022年泸定6.8级地震的震间形变场(2014—2020年)和同震形变场, 估算了泸定地震的震间断层滑动速率、闭锁深度和同震滑动分布, 分析了此次地震对周边断裂的影响, 并进一步探讨泸定地震的发震构造和磨西断裂及其周边断裂的未来地震发生趋势。震间InSAR形变场及InSAR和GNSS融合的三维形变场结果显示了2022年泸定地震发震断层的长期滑动特征, 滑动速率为(5.9±1.8)mm/a, 主要表现为剪切变形明显且应变集中的特征, 震前磨西断裂存在明显闭锁, 具有强震发生背景。同震滑动分布反演结果表明, 此次泸定地震是以左旋走滑为主的高倾角走滑地震, 最大滑动量可达1.71m, 最大滑动位于10km深处。基于文中获得的同震滑动分布计算了同震位错效应引起的断层面上的库仑应力变化, 结果显示磨西断裂南段的地震破裂段形成应力影区, 而在此次地震中未破裂的北段的库仑应力显著升高, 同时, 折多塘断裂南东部分、安宁河断裂带石棉—冕宁段北西部分、大凉山断裂竹马段南东部分和公益海段南东部分的断层面库仑应力显著增加。2022年泸定地震的发震构造为鲜水河断裂带的磨西断裂, 此次泸定地震的发生并没有完全降低鲜水河断裂带的地震风险, 仍需重点关注磨西断裂未破裂段及其周边具有大地震发生背景的强震破裂空段。

关键词: 2022年泸定地震, 鲜水河断裂带, 震间形变, 同震滑动分布, 库仑应力变化, 地震危险性

Abstract:

Situated as the eastern boundary of the Sichuan-Yunnan block, the Xianshuihe fault system exhibits a notably high left-lateral strike-slip rate, establishing itself as one of the most active regions for seismic activity in the Chinese mainland, profoundly influencing the occurrence of large earthquakes within the region. The fault zone and its surrounding area are relatively densely populated, intersecting with the famous Sichuan-Xizang National Highway No. 317 and No. 318 and serving as a significant focal point in the design of the Sichuan-Xizang railway. Given its substantial seismogenic capacity and associated earthquake risk, notable attention is warranted. Notably, on September 5, 2022, a left-lateral strike-slip M_S6.8 earthquake struck Luding County, Ganzê Prefecture, Sichuan Province, rupturing the Moxi fault of the Xianshuihe fault zone within the southeastern margin of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. Our study used Sentinel-1 SAR images to obtain both the interseismic deformation (2014-2020) and coseismic deformation resulting from the 2022 Luding M6.8 earthquake. Furthermore, we estimated the fault slip rate and locking depth during interseismic periods and inverted the coseismic slip distribution model. Utilizing the co-seismic dislocation model, we quantified Coulomb stress changes on surrounding fault planes induced by the Luding event. Finally, we provide an in-depth discussion on the seismogenic structure of the Luding earthquake and offer insights into the future seismic hazard implications associated with the Moxi fault and its adjacent faults.

We collected Sentinel-1 SAR imagery data spanning from October 2014 to April 2020 for both the descending orbit T135 and ascending orbit T026, and calculated the Line-of-Sight(LOS)direction deformation during the interseismic period covering the Moxi Fault of the Xianshuihe fault zone. The InSAR-derived interseismic deformation presented in this study effectively captures the long-term slip behavior of the seismogenic fault associated with the 2022 Luding earthquake. Our analysis reveals an aestimated slip rate of(5.9±1.8)mm/yr along the Moxi Fault. Combined with the GNSS and InSAR deformation observations, we generated a fused three-dimensional deformation field characterized by high density and precision. Additionally, we calculated the strain rate field based on the three-dimensional deformation within the study area. Our findings indicate pronounced shear deformation near the Moxi Fault, with strain highly concentrated along the fault trace. Notably, the strain concentration in the southern section of the Moxi Fault surpasses that observed in the northern section before the earthquake event. Furthermore, our analysis suggests that the Moxi Fault was locked at shallow depths before the earthquake occurrence, indicating a predisposition for seismic activity. The Luding earthquake thus transpired within the context of a seismically active background associated with the Moxi Fault.

Following the 2022 Luding 6.8 earthquake, we acquired InSAR coseismic deformation data within the seismic region, revealing predominantly horizontal surface displacements induced by the event. Employing the Most Rapid Descent Method(SDM), we conducted inversion of the fault plane slip distribution resulting from the earthquake. Our analyses indicate maximal dislocation quantities located south of the central earthquake zone, indicative of predominantly pure strike-slip movement. Dislocations are primarily observed at depths ranging between 5km to 15km, with the maximum left-lateral strike-slip dislocation measuring 1.71m and occurring at a depth of approximately 10km. In the north of the epicenter, fault slip manifests as predominantly sinistral strike-slip motion with a partial thrust component, exhibiting a progressively deepening slip pattern towards the northern region.

Utilizing the coseismic slip distribution derived from the 2022 Luding M_S6.8 earthquake, we conducted calculations to assess the Coulomb stress changes induced by the coseismic dislocation effects across the fault plane of the Moxi Fault and its surrounding major fault zones. These fault zones include the Xianshuihe fault zone(comprising the Moxi, Yalahe, Selaha, Zheduotang, and Kangding segments), the Anninghe fault zone(encompassing the Shimian-Mianning and Mianning-Xichang segments), the Zemuhe Fault zone, and the Daliangshan fault zone(comprising the Zhuma, Gongyihai, Yuexi, Puxiong, Butuo, and Jiaojihe segments).Our analysis reveals that the Luding earthquake caused a substantial decrease in Coulomb stress within its rupture section, resulting in the formation of a stress shadow area in the southern segment of the Moxi Fault. However, it significantly increased the Coulomb stress in the northern section of the Moxi Fault that was not ruptured in the earthquake. Concurrently, the Coulomb stress on the fault plane increases significantly in the southeast section of the Zheduotang fault, the northwest section of the Shimian-Mianning segment of the Anninghe fault zone, as well as the southeast section of the Zhuma segment, and the southeast section of the Gongihai segment of the Daliangshan fault zone.

The seismogenic structure of the 2022 Luding earthquake is a part of the Moxi Fault of the Xianshuihe fault zone. However, the magnitude and rupture length of the earthquake are significantly smaller than that of the Moxi M7$\frac{3}{4}$ earthquake in 1786, resulting in a less pronounced stress unloading effect. Additionally, the Luding earthquake triggered a noteworthy increase in Coulomb stress along the northern segment of the Moxi Fault. Consequently, the Luding earthquake did not ultimately reduce the seismic hazard within the Xianshuihe fault zone. Thus, greater attention should be directed towards the unruptured section of the Moxi Fault and its adjoining rupture with the background of large earthquakes.

Key words: The 2022 Luding earthquake, the Xianshuihe fault zone, interseismic deformation, coseismic slip distribution, Coulomb stress change, seismic hazard

徐晶, 季灵运, 刘传金. 2022年泸定M_S6.8地震震前区域变形背景及同震形变特征[J]. 地震地质, 2024, 46(3): 645-664.

XU Jing, JI Ling-yun, LIU Chuan-jin. REGIONAL DEFORMATION BACKGROUND AND COSEISMIC DEFORMATION CHARACTERISTICS OF THE 2022 LUDING M_S6.8 EARTHQUAKE[J]. SEISMOLOGY AND GEOLOGY, 2024, 46(3): 645-664.

图/表 11

图1 研究区构造背景、强震分布及泸定6.8级地震余震分布 a 青藏高原东缘川滇菱形地块构造背景, 其中红色圆圈代表历史地震, 黑色线条表示活动断层, 内置插图表示图a在青藏高原的具体位置; ATF 阿尔金断裂; HF 海原断裂; KF 昆仑断裂; RDF 红河断裂; XHF 鲜水河断裂。b 川滇菱形块体东边界的鲜水河、安宁河、则木河断裂带的断层迹线与历史地震示意图, 其中包含2022年泸定6.8级地震震中。c 2022年泸定6.8级地震的余震分布

Fig. 1 Tectonic setting, distribution of strong earthquakes, and aftershock of the 2022 Luding earthquake.

图2 鲜水河断裂带自1700年以来MS≥6.7地震的破裂分布图据Wen等(2008)部分数据绘制, 红色五角星表示2022年泸定地震的震中位置

Fig. 2 Seismic rupture distribution of MS≥6.7 along the Xianshuihe fault zone since 1700.

图3 基于InSAR观测的泸定地震震中附近震前形变场(2014—2020年) a T026轨道获取的InSAR形变场; b T135轨道获取的InSAR形变场

Fig. 3 Preseismic deformation field near the epicenter of Luding earthquake based on InSAR observation(2014—2020).

图4 研究区InSAR和GNSS融合的三维形变场 a NS向形变场; b EW向形变场; c 垂直方向形变场

Fig. 4 Three-dimensional deformation field of InSAR and GNSS fusion.

图5 研究区应变率场的分布

Fig. 5 Strain rate distribution in the study area.

图6 二维剖线滑动速率结果 a 断层平行方向的形变场和剖线位置; b 剖线1的拟合结果; c 剖线2的拟合结果; d 剖线3的拟合结果

Fig. 6 Slip rate based on two-dimensional profile.

图7 InSAR同震形变场最优同震滑动模型的数据拟合情况和残差统计。a—c T135轨道的原始观测、预测值和残差; d—f T026轨道的观测值、预测值与残差; g T135轨道残差统计分布; h T026轨道残差统计分布; i 本文反演模型中选择平滑因子的L曲线。

Fig. 7 InSAR coseismic deformation field.

图8 2022年泸定6.8级地震的同震位错模型 a 三维模型; b 二维模型

Fig. 8 Coseismic dislocation model of the 2022 Luding earthquake.

图9 磨西断裂断层面库仑应力变化随时间的演化及2022年泸定6.8级地震对磨西断裂的影响 a 同震、震后效应引起的库仑应力变化随时间的演化; b 同震、震后、震间效应引起的累积库仑应力变化随时间的演化。纵轴为沿断裂走向的距离, 横轴为演化的时间(1700—2030年), 黑色实线表示1786年和2022年地震的破裂范围

Fig. 9 Coulomb stress evolution of the Moxi Fault and the influence of the 2022 Luding earthquake on the Moxi Fault.

图10 泸定地震同震位错效应引起的磨西断裂及其周边断裂断层面上的库仑应力变化

Fig. 10 Coulomb stress changes on the fault plane of the Moxi Fault and its surrounding faults caused by coseismic dislocation of the Luding earthquake.

图11 2022年泸定6.8级地震的余震分布及震源机制特征

Fig. 11 Distribution and focal mechanisms of aftershocks of the 2022 Luding earthquake.

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