2022年门源 MS6.9 地震前断层活动及应力状态的数值模拟

doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2023.06.003

地震地质 ›› 2023, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (6): 1286-1308.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2023.06.003

2022年门源 M_S6.9 地震前断层活动及应力状态的数值模拟

李媛¹^,²⁾(), 杨周胜³⁾^,^*(), 庞亚瑾²⁾, 梁洪宝²⁾, 刘峡²⁾

¹⁾ 中国地震局地质研究所, 地震动力学国家重点实验室, 北京 100029
²⁾ 中国地震局第一监测中心, 天津 300180
³⁾ 云南省地震局, 昆明 650000

收稿日期:2022-11-19 修回日期:2023-08-25 出版日期:2023-12-20 发布日期:2024-01-16
通讯作者: *杨周胜, 男, 1967年生, 副研究员, 主要从事地震监测研究, E-mail: yeayzs@sohu.com。<
作者简介:
李媛, 女, 1988年生, 现为中国地震局地质研究所固体地球物理学专业在读博士研究生, 工程师, 主要从事地壳形变机理和跨断层数据分析以及动力学数值模拟等研究, E-mail: lilyuaner@126.com。
基金资助:
中国地震局第一监测中心课题(FMCJ202302); 2023年震情跟踪任务(2023010217); 国家自然科学基金(FMC2022015)

NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF FAULT ACTIVITY AND STRESS STATE BEFORE M_S6.9 MENYUAN EARTHQUAKE

LI Yuan¹^,²⁾(), YANG Zhou-sheng³⁾^,^*(), PANG Ya-jin²⁾, LIANG Hong-bao²⁾, LIU Xia²⁾

¹⁾ State Key Laboratory Earthquake Dynamics, Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100029, China
²⁾ The First Monitoring and Application Center, China Earthquake Administration, Tianjin 300180, China
³⁾ Yunnan Earthquake Agency, Kunming 650000, China

Received:2022-11-19 Revised:2023-08-25 Online:2023-12-20 Published:2024-01-16

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

2022年1月8日门源 M_S6.9 地震是继1986年和2016年2次门源 M_S6.4 地震后, 冷龙岭断裂西段再次发生的M_S>6强震。为探讨此次门源 M_S6.9 地震前近震区的断层运动、应力状态和强震多发的孕震环境, 文中以地震前1991—2015期和2017—2021期GPS速度场作为边界约束, 通过建立精细的三维黏弹性有限元动力学模型, 计算分析了祁连山构造区在长期的构造运动环境下应力积累的基本格局, 区域内断层的长期滑动速率、应力累积速率, 以及这些量值在门源 M_S6.9 地震前约5a的变化特征。1991—2015期的计算结果显示: 门源 M_S6.9 近震区长期受到NE-SW向挤压和NW-SE向拉张的应力场作用, 最大剪应力积累比周围区域快, 应力积累整体上以促进NWW向断层的挤压和走滑运动为主; 与周围断层段相比, 受几何拐折形态影响, 冷龙岭断裂西段的滑动速率偏低, 断层剪切应力的累积速率较高, 发震断层上运动的亏损与应力的快速积累有利于孕育走滑型地震。2017—2021期相对于1991—2015期的增量结果显示, 在临近地震约5a的时段内, 冷龙岭断裂西段走滑速率进一步减小, 断层的剪应力累积速率显著增高, 利于促进走滑型地震的发生。冷龙岭断裂西段具有较强的动力学背景和有利的强震发生条件, 未来依然存在发生强震的危险。

关键词: 门源M_S6.9地震, 冷龙岭断裂, 有限元模拟, 断层运动, 应力

Abstract:

The Menyuan M_S6.9 earthquake occurred on January 8, 2022, which is the third strong M_S>6 earthquake on the western part of the Lenglongling fault following two Menyuan M_S6.4 earthquakes that took place in 1986 and 2016. In order to explore the fault deformation and stress states of different timescales before the M_S6.9 Menyuan earthquake and the dynamic environment of frequent strong earthquakes in the area nearby the epicenter, with GPS velocities of 1991—2015 and 2017—2021 as boundary constraints, a fine three-dimensional viscoelastic finite element model was established. The model included the impacts of tectonic units, the layered structure of the crust-mantle, the inhomogeneity of the medium, the interactions of many different faults, and the shape of the faults. It also refined the key faults in the region and their geometric characteristics. The basic pattern of stress accumulation in the Qilian Mountain tectonic region under the long-term tectonic movement environment, the long-term slip rate and stress accumulation rate of faults and their change characteristics during the five years before the Menyuan M_S6.9 earthquake are calculated and analyzed. Combining the results of the source mechanism solution and cross-fault level observation, the following conclusions are obtained:

(1)According to the simulation results for a longer period of 1991—2015, the stress field in the study area gradually rotates clockwise, with NNE-SSW extrusion and NWW-SEE tension to NE-SW extrusion and NW-SE tension from west to east. The direction of the principal compressive stress is mostly perpendicular to the fault strike. The region near the epicenter of the Menyuan M_S6.9 earthquake has been subjected to long-term NE-SW extrusion and NW-SE tensional stress. The maximum shear stress accumulates faster than the surrounding area. The above stress accumulation characteristics overall promote NW-oriented shear and NE-oriented extrusion movement of faults, which contribute to the generation and occurrence of strike-slip and thrust earthquakes on the NWW-oriented Lenglongling Fault.

(2)The simulation results show that most NWW-orientated faults exhibit a left-lateral strike-slip and thrust nature. In contrast, NNW-orientated faults display a right-lateral strike-slip and extrusion nature. The fault’s stress nature corresponds with its movement nature. Spatially, the overall trend of fault movement in the study area is that the extrusion rate gradually decreases from west to east, and the slip rate gradually increases from west to east. This indicates that the Qilianshan tectonic belt plays a significant role in transforming and adjusting the tectonic deformation of the northeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau.

(3)The fault movement and its stress distribution show significant segmentation, indicating the crucial role of fault geometry in fault movement. The western segment of the Lenglongling Fault has a geometric inflection pattern, causing stress accumulation variability and uncoordinated movement between different segments. Compared to the surrounding fault segments, this fault segment has a higher rate of stress accumulation yet experiences hindered movement in space which causes a lower slip rate. fault zones that exhibit motion deficits and rapid energy accumulation are more susceptible to earthquakes.

(4)Compared to the period between 1991 and 2015, the simulation outcomes obtained during 2017—2021 demonstrated noticeable differences and irregularities in the distribution of motion and stress increment fields along the fault, which were segmental in nature. Within~5 years before the Menyuan M_S6.9 earthquake, the strike-slip rate at the western segment of the Lenglongling fault is further reduced, the accumulation rate of shear stress was significantly increased; the extrusion rate was significantly weakened, and the rate of positive stress accumulation was slowed down. These recent changes in fault motion and stress are conducive to promoting left-lateral slip-strike earthquakes on this fault segment.

(5)From a hydrostatic perspective, the above studies demonstrate that the epicenter region had accumulated high stress for a long time before the earthquake, and as the earthquake approached, the positive stress on the seismic fault surface increased slowly, and the friction increased synchronously, leading to the weakening and deficit of movement on the local fault segment.

In conclusion, the western segment of the Lenglongling fault has a strong stress background and favorable conditions for the occurrence of strong earthquakes, and the risk of strong earthquakes is still predicted to exist in the future.

Key words: Menyuan M_S6.9 earthquake, Lenglongling fault, finite element simulation, fault movement, stress

李媛, 杨周胜, 庞亚瑾, 梁洪宝, 刘峡. 2022年门源 M_S6.9 地震前断层活动及应力状态的数值模拟[J]. 地震地质, 2023, 45(6): 1286-1308.

LI Yuan, YANG Zhou-sheng, PANG Ya-jin, LIANG Hong-bao, LIU Xia. NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF FAULT ACTIVITY AND STRESS STATE BEFORE M_S6.9 MENYUAN EARTHQUAKE[J]. SEISMOLOGY AND GEOLOGY, 2023, 45(6): 1286-1308.

图/表 8

图1 祁连山断裂带构造背景图黑色地震震源球为1976年以来MS≥5.0地震分布, 红色震源球为门源 MS6.9 地震①(① http://www.globalcmt.org。)

Fig. 1 Tectonic background of the Qilianshan fault zone.

图2 三维有限元模型的边界条件和拟合残差结果 a 三维有限元网格模型; b 区域实测2期GPS速度场及模型边界约束条件, 蓝色线框为研究区边界; c 2期的模拟值与实际观测值的拟合残差空间分布; d、 e 1991—2015和2017—2021 2期N向和E向速率残差统计分布图。图a中的图框部分为祁连山构造区

Fig. 2 Boundary conditions and fitted residuals of the 3D finite element model.

表1 模型物性参数设置

Table1 Material parameters in the modeling

模型参数	杨氏模量 /×10¹⁰Pa	泊松比	密度 /kg·m^-3	黏滞系数/10²¹Pa·s
				祁连地块	鄂尔多斯、阿拉善、四川盆地
上地壳	8.3~8.5	0.24~0.25	2700
中地壳	9.2~9.8	0.24~0.26	2850	2.0	500
下地壳	10~11	0.25~0.26	2930	0.4	100
上地幔	167~169	0.28~0.29	3350	1.0	10
断层	1.0	0.28	2700

表2 祁连山构造区主要活动断裂几何形态和活动特征表

Table2 The Geometry and activity feature of main faults in the Qilian tectonic area

主要断层	走向	倾向	倾角	运动性质地质结果	地质调查水平滑动速率 /mm·a^-1	长期滑动速率模拟结果/mm·a^-1		参考文献
						挤压	走滑
祁连山北缘	NWW	SW	75°	西段逆冲兼左旋东段左旋逆走滑	1.4	西段-1.5~-2.0; 东段-1~-2	西段1~3.5, 东段0.5~1	①
昌马-俄博	NWW	NE/SW	陡	西段逆冲东段左旋逆走滑	西1.33~3.68 东1.27~1.77	西段-2~-3; 东段-0.5~-2.0;	西段2~3; 东段1.5~2.0	①②
党河南山	NWW	NE	陡	逆冲为主		-2.0~-4.0	0~4.3	③
皇城-双塔	西段NWW 东段EW	NE	50°~80°	逆左旋	西段2.1 东段4.2	西段-0.5~-1.5 东段-0.6~0	西段2.5~3.0 东段3.0~4.5	①④
阴凹槽	NWW	NNE		逆冲		-2~-3.5	0.3~1	①
托莱山	NWW	NE/SW	陡	西段逆冲东段左旋	4~5.38	-0.5~-2.0	3.5~4.5	①
冷龙岭	NWW	NE	50°~60°	左旋走滑	3.46~4.55	-0.2~-1.0	2.5~4.6	①⑤⑥⑦
金强河	近EW	NE	60°~70°	左旋走滑	3.88~4.5	-0.5~0	2.5~4.5	④⑥⑧
毛毛山-老虎山	近EW	SW	60°~80°	左旋走滑	4.09~5.54	-0.3~0	2.5~2.8	⑤⑥④
榆木山北缘	NWW	SW	40°~80°	右旋逆走滑	1.5	-1.5~-2.2	-1.6~-1.0	①
榆木山东缘	NNW	SW	60°~80°	逆断逆走滑	1.1	-2.0~-2.7	-0.2~0	①
武威-天祝	NNW	SW	45°~80°	右旋逆走滑		-1.0~-1.2	-0.8~-0.4	①⑨
庄浪河	NNW	SW	60°~70°	逆断兼少量右旋		-0.9~-1.1	-0.4~-0.3	⑨⑩

图3 研究区上地壳主应力累积率场分布 a 1991—2015期速度约束下数值模拟获得的地壳主应力累积率分布, 彩色代表最大剪应力累积率; b 基于震源机制反演得到的平面应力场。红色标注分别为门源 MS6.9 地震和托莱山-冷龙岭断裂

Fig. 3 Distribution of principal stress accumulation rate field of crust in the study area.

图4 断层长期滑动分量与应力积累速率模拟结果 a 挤压速率(拉张为正, 挤压为负); b 水平走滑速率(左旋为正, 右旋为负); c 法向挤压应力累积率(拉张为正, 挤压为负); d 剪切应力累积率(使断层发生左旋走滑的剪应力为正, 反之为负)。红色五角星代表2022年门源 MS6.9 地震震中, 灰色五角星代表1986年和2016年门源地震震中

Fig. 4 Simulative results of the long-term movement and stress accumulative rate of fault.

图5 震前约5a较长期的断层滑动速率与应力累积率变化结果 a 挤压速率增量(挤压减弱或拉张增加为正); b 走滑速率增量(左旋走滑增加或右旋走滑减小为正); c 法向挤压应力累积率增量(压应力减弱或拉张应力增加为正); d 剪切应力累积率增量, 促进左旋走滑加速的增量或促使右旋走滑减弱的增量为正值。绿色三角形为跨断层短水准观测场地, 红色五角星为2022年门源 MS6.9 地震震中

Fig. 5 Results of long-term variations of fault slip rate and stress accumulation rate in the period of ~5 years before the earthquake.

图6 震中距150km以内的异常测段时序曲线统一将断层下盘测点与上盘相减, 以分析断层活动特征。曲线走势向下为挤压、逆断运动, 向上为拉张、正断运动。纵轴 Δ H代表垂向位移变化

Fig. 6 Time series curve of prominent anomalous measurement sections within 150km from the epicenter.

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2022年门源 M_S6.9 地震前断层活动及应力状态的数值模拟

NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF FAULT ACTIVITY AND STRESS STATE BEFORE M_S6.9 MENYUAN EARTHQUAKE

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2022年门源 MS6.9 地震前断层活动及应力状态的数值模拟

NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF FAULT ACTIVITY AND STRESS STATE BEFORE MS6.9 MENYUAN EARTHQUAKE

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2022年门源 M_S6.9 地震前断层活动及应力状态的数值模拟

NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF FAULT ACTIVITY AND STRESS STATE BEFORE M_S6.9 MENYUAN EARTHQUAKE