长白山天池火山溃湖洪水最大流量的初步估算及影响分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2013.01.007

地震地质 ›› 2013, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (1): 85-91.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2013.01.007

长白山天池火山溃湖洪水最大流量的初步估算及影响分析

刘俊清^1,2, 孙继财³, 武成智³, 李克²

1. 吉林大学地球探测科学与技术学院, 长春 130026;
2. 吉林省地震局, 长春 130117;
3. 长白山火山观测站, 安图县 133613

收稿日期:2012-06-24 修回日期:2012-12-12 出版日期:2013-03-30 发布日期:2013-04-09
基金资助:
中国地震局2012年度青年震情跟踪课题(2012020208)资助。

EFFECT ANALYSIS AND PRELIMINARY ESTIMATION OF VOLCANO LAKE OUTBURST FLOOD MAXIMUM FLOW OF CHANGBAISHAN TIANCHI VOLCANO

LIU Jun-qing^1,2, SUN Ji-cai³, WU Cheng-zhi³, LI Ke²

1. College of Geoexploration Science and Technology, Jilin University, Changchun 130026, China;
2. Jilin Province Earthquake Administration, Changchun 130117, China;
3. Changbaishan Volcano Observatory, Antu, Jilin 133613, China

Received:2012-06-24 Revised:2012-12-12 Online:2013-03-30 Published:2013-04-09

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

长白山天池火山是目前最具潜在喷发危险的活火山。依据长白山天池火山的最新监测研究成果,结合地形地貌、水文流域特点及天池火山历史喷发类型,重点分析了长白山天池火山未来喷发时发生溃湖洪水的危险性。利用相关的水动力学公式,建立了溃口规模和洪水湿周、流量和流速的内在关系。详细分析溃湖洪峰在下游二道白河镇、白山水电站、红石水电站等关键位置的最大流量及流速。结果表明,若天池火山湖水溃泄一半即10亿m³时,距火山口50km处的二道白河镇瞬时洪水流速达84 904m³/s,该镇将全部被淹没。下游的白山水库、丰满水库将分别受到流量23 560m³/s和1 505m³/s洪水的冲击,水库安全受到严重威胁。

关键词: 长白山天池火山, 溃湖洪水, 灾害, 预测

Abstract:

The active volcano-Changbaishan Tianchi Volcano in China,has an urgent eruption danger at present. There have been several eruptions in the past. In recent years,ground deformation and earthquake monitoring stations were established in the Changbaishan Volcano area,and the monitoring data show that the magma underground has triggered earthquake swarm activities and led to ground deformation. A lot of research results show that Changbaishan Tianchi Volcano is in an early unrest stage at present,the future eruption risk is increasing. The volcano disaster is very complicated.The determinants include volcano eruption pattern, crater position and magma ingredients. To the Changbaishan Tianchi Volcano,once it erupts in the future,in addition to generating volcano mud flow,debris flow and ash cloud,the flooding dam overflow caused will be the most influential and worst secondary disaster. Changbaishan Tianchi Volcano Lake is one of the highest volcano lakes in the world,with a lake area 10km²,depth 371m,water volume 2 billion m³,once it bursts,it will cause huge economic loss and people death to the downstream region. This article elaborates the topography and hydrology and watershed characteristics of Changbaishan Tianchi volcano. Using the hydraulic formula,we estimate the volcano lake dam-break model and analyze maximum volcano lake outburst flood flow and the flood evolution process to downstream area under the different conditions.The conclusion shows that,if the volcano lake dam collapses by half,the Er-Dao town will be flooded,and the downstream Baishan reservoir will suffer a serious threat from the floodwaters.

Key words: Changbaishan Tianchi volcano, volcano lake outburst flood, volcano disaster, forecasting

中图分类号:

P317.7

刘俊清, 孙继财, 武成智, 李克. 长白山天池火山溃湖洪水最大流量的初步估算及影响分析[J]. 地震地质, 2013, 35(1): 85-91.

LIU Jun-qing, SUN Ji-cai, WU Cheng-zhi, LI Ke. EFFECT ANALYSIS AND PRELIMINARY ESTIMATION OF VOLCANO LAKE OUTBURST FLOOD MAXIMUM FLOW OF CHANGBAISHAN TIANCHI VOLCANO[J]. SEISMOLOGY AND GEOLOGY, 2013, 35(1): 85-91.

参考文献

玛尔达尼,邓澄.2009.冰缘湖溃决洪水分析计算的初步认识［J］.水利水电技术,40(4): 70—72.
MERDAN Mijiti,DENG Cheng.2009.Preliminary understanding on analysis and calculation of flood from failure of glacial marginal lake ［J］.Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering,40(4): 70—72(in Chinese).
洪汉净,吴建平,王庆良,等.2007.中国火山危险性等级与活动性分类［J］.地震地质,29(3): 447—458.
HONG Han-jing,WU Jian-ping,WANG Qing-liang, et al,2007.Volcanic threat levels and classification of volcanic activity in China ［J］.Seismology and Geology,29(3): 447—458(in Chinese).
刘若新,魏海泉,李继泰.1998.长白山天池火山近代喷发［M］.北京: 科学出版社.P46.
LIU Ruo-xin,WEI Hai-quan,LI Ji-tai.1998.The Recent Eruptions of Changbaishan Tianchi Volcano ［M］.Science Press,Beijing. P46(in Chinese).
刘松雪,刘祥.2005.长白山火山灾害及其对大型工程建设的影响［J］.世界地质,24(3): 289—292.
LIU Song-xue,LIU Xiang.2005.Hazards of Changbaishan volcano and its impact on large engineering projects ［J］.Global Geology,24(3): 289—292(in Chinese).
李春茂,魏海泉,高玲,等.2006.天池和二道白河流域洪水灾害预测［J］.吉林地质,25(3): 69—73.
LI Chun-mao,WEI Hai-quan,GAO Ling, et al. 2006.The flood damage forecast of the Tianchi and Erdaobaihe drainage area ［J］.Jilin Geology,25(3): 69—73(in Chinese).
李克,刘俊清,盘晓东,等.2009. 2000—2007年期间长白山天池火山区地壳变形监测与分析［J］. 地震地质,31(4):639—646.doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2009.04.
LI Ke, LIU Jun-qing, PAN Xiao-dong, et al. 2009. Crust deformation monitoring and research in tianchi volcanic area, Changbai Mountains from 2000—2007 ［J］. Seismology and Geology, 31(4):639—646.
陆宇红.2004.GIS技术在洪水演进系统建设中的应用［J］.测绘科学,29(7): 117—119.
LU Hong-yu.2004.Application of GIS technology in the construction of flood evolution system ［J］.Science of Surveying and Mapping,29(7): 117—119(in Chinese).
裘法军,邢明.2006.某水库溃坝洪水计算［J］.大坝与安全,5(1): 2—24.
QIU Fa-jun,XING Ming.2006.Calculation of dam failure flood of some reservoir ［J］.Large Dam & Safety,5(1): 23—24(in Chinese).
谢作涛,张小峰,谈广鸣,等.2005.一维洪水演进数学模型研究及其应用［J］.武汉大学学报(工学版),38(3): 69—72.
XIE Zuo-tao,ZHANG Xiao-feng,TAN Guang-ming,et al.2005.Study and application of mathematical model for one-dimensional flood-routing ［J］Engineering Journal of Wuhan University,38(3): 69—72(in Chinese).
吴建平,明跃红,刘一鸣,等.2003.2002年8月20日长白山天池火山小震震群研究［J］.地震地磁观测与研究,24(4): 1—7.
WU Jian-ping,MING Yue-hong,LIU Yi-ming,et al.2003.A study on the micro-earthquake swarm occurred on Aug.20,2002 in Changbaishan Tianchi volcano ［J］.Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research,24(4): 1—7(in Chinese).
王艳男,陈明.2007.第二松花江洪水特性分析［J］.吉林水利,(6): 3—6.
WANG Yan-nan,CHEN Ming.2007.The analysis for the flood characteristic in the Second Songhua River ［J］.Jilin Water Resources,(6): 3—6(in Chinese).
岳志远,曹志先,车涛,等.2007.冰湖溃决洪水的二维水动力学数值模拟［J］.冰川冻土,29(5): 756—763.
YUE Zhi-yuan,CAO Zhi-xian,CHE Tao,et al.2007.Two-dimensional mathematical modeling of glacier lake outburst flood ［J］.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,29(5):756—763(in Chinese).

[1]	李营, 方震, 张晨蕾, 李继业, 鲍志诚, 张翔, 刘兆飞, 周晓成, 陈志, 杜建国. 地震流体地球化学短临预测研究进展与展望[J]. 地震地质, 2023, 45(3): 593-621.
[2]	郭明瑞, 于红梅, 胡久常, 王锡娇, 郑在壮, 王桂丹. 琼北火山监测与活动性研究进展[J]. 地震地质, 2022, 44(5): 1128-1141.
[3]	陈鲲, 王永哲, 席楠, 卢永坤, 陆东华. 2021年5月21日云南漾濞6.4级地震的地震动强度图[J]. 地震地质, 2021, 43(4): 899-907.
[4]	姚远, 李涛, 刘奇, 邸宁. 2020年1月19日新疆伽师M_W6.0地震震中区地质灾害特点[J]. 地震地质, 2021, 43(2): 410-429.
[5]	阮帅, 汤吉, 董泽义, 王立凤, 邓琰, 韩冰. 基于三维大地电磁AR-QN反演的长白山天池火山区电性结构[J]. 地震地质, 2020, 42(6): 1282-1300.
[6]	兰剑, 陈晓利. 2008年M_S8.0汶川地震诱发滑坡灾害在映秀地区的演化特征[J]. 地震地质, 2020, 42(1): 125-146.
[7]	周正华, 李玉萍, 周游, 李小军, 陈柳, 苏杰, 董青, 王亚飞. 硬夹层厚度对场地地震反应的影响[J]. 地震地质, 2019, 41(5): 1254-1265.
[8]	张凌, 谭璇, 宋冬梅, 王斌, 李睿琳. 基于马尔科夫随机场的单时相震害影像受损建筑物识别方法[J]. 地震地质, 2019, 41(5): 1273-1288.
[9]	许建东, 于红梅, 周本刚, 崔文玲, 杜龙, 魏费翔. 核电厂选址的火山安全评价与灾害评估[J]. 地震地质, 2019, 41(5): 1289-1301.
[10]	邹颖, 赵勇伟, 樊祺诚. 五大连池火山带的火山喷发方式及灾害类型[J]. 地震地质, 2019, 41(1): 189-207.
[11]	徐岳仁, 张伟恒, 李文巧, 何宏林, 田勤俭. 1556年华县地震同震黄土滑坡密集区的发现及意义[J]. 地震地质, 2018, 40(4): 721-737.
[12]	姚远, 陈杰, 李涛, 付博, 王浩然, 李跃华, 陈建波. 2016年11月25日新疆阿克陶M_W6.6地震宏观震中与地质灾害[J]. 地震地质, 2018, 40(2): 426-439.
[13]	潘波, 程滔, 万园, 于红梅, 许建东. 基于热流变运动学模型的熔岩流灾害区划——新疆阿什库勒火山区的灾害区划[J]. 地震地质, 2017, 39(4): 721-734.
[14]	周军学, 聂高众, 谭劲先, 李莎, 范熙伟, 毕熙荣. 2016年7月31日广西苍梧5.4级地震灾害特征分析[J]. 地震地质, 2017, 39(4): 781-792.
[15]	赵波, 张焘, 徐德斌, 白志达. 吉林龙岗火山群金龙顶子火山机构及灾害区划[J]. 地震地质, 2017, 39(2): 423-435.

长白山天池火山溃湖洪水最大流量的初步估算及影响分析

EFFECT ANALYSIS AND PRELIMINARY ESTIMATION OF VOLCANO LAKE OUTBURST FLOOD MAXIMUM FLOW OF CHANGBAISHAN TIANCHI VOLCANO

PDF (PC)

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 15

编辑推荐

Metrics

本文评价