数值模拟方法在地震预测研究中应用的初步探讨(Ⅱ)

doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2011.03.016

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在地震危险性分析和预测研究中,随着数值模拟技术的进步和对地球动力学过程认识的不断深入,有可能发挥越来越重要的作用。数值模拟一个区域内部的构造变形,在正常时期与观测结果应该是比较接近的,而当局部地方处于孕震临界失稳状态时,其实测结果就有可能与模拟结果不协调,据此有可能为地震的中期至短期预测提供有价值的信息; 应用数值模拟方法研究地震库仑应力变化,可模拟分析各种因素对库仑应力变化的大小和分布的影响,获得更接近实际的结果; 计算机模拟合成地震目录是解决建立区域地震预测概率模型数据不足的有效方法,未来的发展方向应该是建立更接近实际的三维动力学模型,同时考虑多场耦合作用,模拟断层活动的规律。

关键词: 地震预测, 数值模拟, 库仑应力, 发震概率模型, 变形不协调

Abstract:

With the advances in simulation techniques and understanding of geodynamic processes,numerical simulation is likely to play an increasingly important role in the research of seismic hazard analysis and earthquake prediction.In this paper,on the basis of the paper "A preliminary study on the application of numerical simulation methods to earthquake prediction research(Ⅰ)",the possible application of uncoordinated deformation analysis,Coulomb stress changes and earthquake probability modeling to the study of earthquake prediction is further discussed.When rock deforms from the elastic into the yield stage,the system is in a critical unstable state,the rock movement may deviate from the normal track and become complicated.The study results show that,before Wenan earthquake(M_S 5.1)on July 4,2006,GPS velocity was well consistent with the numerical simulation speed in most areas of North China,while there were some differences in some regions,especially in the northeast of the North China Plain block,where big inconsistency in movement characteristics occurred,resulting perhaps from the preparation of Wenan earthquake.Research on earthquakes triggered by Coulomb stress change is a focus problem now.Numerical simulation may play an important role in the analysis of Coulomb stress changes.By constructing three-dimensional dynamic model,the effect of various factors on the value and distribution of Coulomb stress change can be simulated,and more realistic results can be obtained.By numerical simulation of Coulomb stress changes to seismic activities beneath Sichuan Zipingpu reservoirs,it is found that with the increase of reservoir water storage time,the pore pressure diffusion in the effective additional stress field will be gradually expanded to the range of more than 10km underground.The regional effective additional stress field and seismic activities show different characteristics in several typical regions.The United States Southern California Earthquake Center has tried to study the earthquake probability as research objectives.It is worthy of referencing in China's earthquake research.Computer simulation of synthetic earthquake catalog is an effective way to solve the lack of data.The future direction of development should be a more realistic three-dimensional dynamic model,taking into account the multi-field coupling between heat,fluid and etc. ,improving hardware and software conditions and shortening the calculation time step,obtaining more complete information on fault movement,and simulating the fault activities.

Key words: earthquake prediction, numerical simulation, Coulomb stress, earthquake probability modeling, uncoordinated deformation

中图分类号:

P315.61

邓志辉, 胡勐乾, 周斌, 陆远忠, 陶京玲, 马晓静, 姜辉, 李红. 数值模拟方法在地震预测研究中应用的初步探讨(Ⅱ)[J]. 地震地质, 2011, 33(3): 670-683.

DENG Zhi-hui, HU Meng-qian, ZHOU Bin, LU Yuan-zhong, TAO Jing-ling, MA Xiao-jing, JIANG Hui, LI Hong. PRELIMINARY STUDY ON APPLICATION OF NUMERICAL SIMU-LATION METHODS TO EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION RESEARCH(Ⅱ)[J]. SEISMOLOGY AND GEOLOGY, 2011, 33(3): 670-683.

参考文献

曹建玲,石耀霖,张怀,等.2009.青藏高原 GPS 位移绕喜马拉雅东构造结顺时针旋转成因的数值模拟［J］.科学通报,54(2): 224-234.
CAO Jian-ling,SHI Yao-lin,ZHANG Huai,et al.2009.Numerical simulation of GPS observed clockwise rotation around the eastern Himalayan syntax in the Tibetan Plateau ［J］.Chinese Science Bulletin,54(2): 224-234(in Chinese).
陈连旺,张培震,陆远忠,等.2008.川滇地区强震序列库仑破裂应力加卸载效应的数值模拟［J］.地球物理学报,51(5): 1411-1421.
CHEN Lian-wang,ZHANG Pei-zhen,LU Yuan-zhong,et al.2008.Numerical simulation of loading/unloading effect on Coulomb failure stress among strong earthquakes in Sichuan-Yunnan area ［J］.Chinese J Geophys,51(5): 1411-1421(in Chinese).
洪汉净.1994.从地震模拟看匀阻段与大震的关系［J］.地震地质,16(2): 109-114.
HONG Han-jing.1994.Seismic simulation: Correlation of resistance-homogenous fault segment with large earthquakes ［J］.Seismology and Geology,16(2): 109-114(in Chinese).
嘉世旭,张先康.2005.华北不同构造块体地壳结构及其对比研究［J］.地球物理学报,48(3):611-620.
JIA Shi-xu, ZHANG Xian-kang. 2005. Crustal structure and comparison of different tectonic blocks in North China ［J］. Chinese J Geophys, 48(3):611-620(in Chinese).
金文正,汤良杰,杨克明,等.2007.龙门山冲断带构造特征研究主要进展及存在问题探讨［J］.地质论评,54(1): 37-46.
JIN Wen-zheng,TANG Liang-jie,YANG Ke-ming,et al.2007.Deformation and zonation of the Longmenshan fold and thrust zone in the western Sichuan Basin ［J］.Acta Geologica Sinica,81(8): 1072-1080.
刘桂萍,傅征祥.2002.1973年炉霍大地震(M_S7.6)最大余震(M_S 6.3)的库仑破裂应力触发［J］.中国地震,18(2): 175-182.
LIU Gui-ping,FU Zheng-xiang.2002.The triggering mechanism of the largest aftershock(M_S 6.3)of the 1973 Luhuo great earthquake(M_S 7.6)［J］.Earthquake Research in China,18(2): 175-182(in Chinese).
刘桂萍,石耀霖,马丽.1995.地震活动性的细胞自动机模型［J］.西北地震学报,17(2): 20-25.
LIU Gui-ping,SHI Yao-lin,MA Li.1995.A cellular automation model of seismicity ［J］.Northwestern Seismological Journal,17(2): 20-25(in Chinese).
刘峡,傅容珊,杨国华,等.2006.用GPS资料研究华北地区形变场和构造应力场［J］.大地测量与地球动力学,26(3): 33-39.
LIU Xia,FU Rong-shan,YANG Guo-hua,et al.2006.Deformation field and tectonic stress field constrained by GPS observations in North China ［J］.Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics,26(3): 33-39(in Chinese).
冉洪流.2006.时间相依模型与泊松模型计算结果的对比分析: 以道孚及炉霍潜源为例［J］.震灾防御技术,1(3): 245-250.
RAN Hong-liu.2006.Comparison of computational results derived from time-dependent and Possion models respectively ［J］.Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention, 1(3): 245-250(in Chinese).
石耀霖,曹建玲.2010.库仑应力计算及应用过程中若干问题的讨沧: 以汶川地震为例［J］.地球物理学报,53(1): 102-110.
SHI Yao-lin,CAO Jian-ling.2010.Some aspects in static stress change calculation-Case study on Wenchuan earthquake ［J］.Chinese J Geophys,53(1): 102-110(in Chinese).
薛霆鸠,傅容珊,陈宇卫,等.2009.大尺度断层活动性数值模拟及地震学类比［J］.地球物理学进展,24(5): 1616-1626.
XUE Ting-jiu,FU Rong-shan,CHEN Yu-wei. et al.2009.Numerical simulation of large scale fault activity and its seismological analogy ［J］.Progress in Geophysics,24(5): 1616-1626(in Chinese).
叶金汉,郗绮霞,夏万人,等.1991.岩石力学参数手册 [Z].北京: 水利电力出版社.
YE Jin-han,XI Qi-xia,XIA Wan-ren,et al.1991.Handbook on mechanical properties of rocks [Z].China Water Power Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
王凯英.2009.断-块模型中走滑型地震应力触发研究: 以青藏高原北部几次强震为例［J］.地球物理学报,52(7): 1776-1781.
WANG Kai-ying.2009.Stress triggering of strike-slip earthquakes in fault-block models: A case of several strong earthquakes in Northern Qinghai-Xizang Plateau ［J］.Chinese Journal of Geophysics,52(7): 1776-1781(in Chinese).
王琼,陈学忠,王海涛.2006.2003年2月24日新疆巴楚-伽师M_S 6.8地震的静态库仑应力触发作用［J］.中国科学院研究生院学报,23(2): 213-220.
WANG Qing,CHEN Xue-zhong,WANG Hai-tao.2006.Stress triggering of static coulomb stress of Xinjiang Bachu-Jiashi earthquake of M_S 6.8,Feb.24,2003 ［J］.Journal of the Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,23(2): 213-220(in Chinese).
万永革,吴忠良,周公威,等.2002.地震静态应力触发模型的全球检验［J］.地震学报,24(3): 302-316.
WAN Yong-ge,WU Zhong-liang,ZHOU Gong-wei,et al.2002.Global test of seismic static stress triggering model ［J］.Acta Seismologica Sinica,24(3): 302-316(in Chinese).
万永革,沈正康,刁桂苓,等.2008.利用小震分布和区域应力场确定大震断层面参数方法及其在唐山地震序列中的应用［J］.地球物理学报,51(3): 793-804.
WAN Yong-ge,SHEN Zheng-kang,DIAO Gui-ling,et al.2008.An algorithm of fault parameter determination using distribution of small earthquakes and parameters of regional stress field and its application to Tangshan earthquake sequence ［J］.Chinese J Geophys,51(3): 793-804(in Chinese).
闻学泽.1990.鲜水河断裂带未来三十年内地震复发的条件概率［J］.中国地震,6(1): 8-16.
WEN Xue-ze.1990.Conditional probabilities for the recurrence of earthquakes on the Xianshuihe Fault zone within the coming three decades ［J］.Earthquake Research in China,6(1): 8-16(in Chinese).
闻学泽.1998. 时间相依的活动断裂分段地震危险性评估及其问题［J］.科学通报,43(14):1457-1466.
WEN Xue-ze. 1998. Assessment of time-dependent seismic hazards on segments of active fault, and its problems ［J］. Chinese Science Bulletin, 43(23):1937-1950.
张国民,耿鲁明,张永仙,等.1995.构造块体的成组孕震模型和前兆场某些特征的分析［J］.地震学报,17(1): 1-10.
ZHANG Guo-min,GENG Lu-ming,ZHANG Yong-xian, et al. 1995.Seismogenic model of earthquakes in groups in tectonic block and analysis for some features of earthquake precursory field ［J］.Acta Seismologica Sinica,17(1): 1-10(in Chinese).
张培震,毛凤英.1996.活动断裂定量研究与中长期地震危险性概率评价.见: 中国地震局地质研究所编.活动断裂研究(5). 北京: 地震出版社.
ZHANG Pei-zhen,MAO Feng-ying.1996.A quantitative study of active fault and the long-and mid-term seismic risk evaluation.In: Institue of Geology,CSB(ed).Research on Active Faults(5). Seismological Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
张效亮,谢富仁.2009.利用GPS数据和实时概率模型评估川滇南部中长期地震危险性［J］.大地测量与地球动力学,29(3): 38-41.
ZHANG Xiao-liang,XIE Fu-ren.2009.Middle and long-term seismic risk evaluation of southern Sichuan-Yunnan region based on GPS data and real-time probabilistic model ［J］.Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics,29(3): 38-41(in Chinese).
周仕勇.2008.川西及邻近地区地震活动性模拟和断层间相互作用研究［J］.地球物理学报,51(1): 165-174.
ZHOU Shi-Yong.2008.Seismicity simulation in Western Sichuan of China based on the fault interactions and its implication on the estimation of the regional earthquake risk ［J］.Chinese Journal of Geophysics,51(1): 165-174(in Chinese).
朱守彪,蔡永恩,刘杰,等.2006.利用三维细胞自动机模型模拟地震活动性［J］.北京大学学报(自然科学版),42(2): 206-211.
ZHU Shou-biao,CAI Yong-en,LIU Jie,et al.2006.Modeling seismicity by 3-D cellular automata ［J］.Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis,42(2): 206-211(in Chinese).
朱守彪,邢会林,谢富仁,等.2008.地震发生过程的有限单元法模拟: 以苏门答腊俯冲带上的大地震为例［J］.地球物理学报,51(2): 460-468.
ZHU Shou-biao,XING Hui-lin,XIE Fu-ren,et al.2008.Simulation of earthquake processes by finite element method: The case of megathrust earthquakes on the Sumatra subduction zone ［J］.Chinese Journal of Geophysics,51(2): 460-468(in Chinese).
朱守彪,张培震.2009.2008年汶川M_S 8.0地震发生过程的动力学机制研究［J］.地球物理学报,52(2): 418-427.
ZHU Shou-biao,ZHANG Pei-zhen.2009.A study on the dynamical mechanisms of the Wenchuan M_S 8.0 earthquake,2008 ［J］.Chinese J Geophys,52(2): 418-427(in Chinese).
Aki K.2002.Synthesis of earthquake science information and its public transfer: A history of the Southern California Earthquake Center ［J］.International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology,81A: 39-49.
Bak P,Tang C.1989.Earthquakes as a self-organized critical phenomenon ［J］.J Geophys Res,(94): 15635-15637.
Beroza G C,Zoback M D.1993.Mechanism diversity of the Loma Prieta aftershocks and the mechanics of mainshock-aftershock interaction ［J］.Science,259: 210-213.
Brace W F,Byerlee J D.1966.Stick-slip as a mechanism for earthquakes ［J］.Science,153(3739): 990-992.
Burridge R, Knopoff L.1967.Model and theoretical seismicity ［J］.Bull Seismo Soc Am,(57): 341-371.
Chinnery M A.1963.The stress changes that accompany strike slip faulting ［J］.Bull Seism Soc Amer,53(1): 921-932.
Deng J,Sykes L R.1997.Evolution of the stress field in southern California and triggering of moderate-size earthquakes: A 2002 year perspective ［J］.J Geophys Res,102: 9859-9886.
Hardebeck J L,Nazareth J J,Hauksson E.1998.The static stress change trigering model: Constraints from two southern California aftershock sequences ［J］.J Geophys Res,98: 4461-4472.
Harris R A.1998.Introduction to special section: Stress triggers,stress shadows,and implications for seismic hazard ［J］.Geophys Res,103: 24347-24358.
Heaton T H.1982.Tidal triggering of earthquakes ［J］.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,72(6): 2181-2200.
Huang Zhongxian,Su Wei,Peng Yanju,et al.2003.Rayleigh wave tomography of China and adjacent regions ［J］.Journal of Geophysical Research, 108(B2): 2073.
LIU Jie,Vere-Jones D,MA Li,et al.1998.The principle of coupled stress release model and its application ［J］.Acta Seismologica Sinica,11(3): 273-281.
Parsons T.2002.Global Omori law decay of triggered earthquakes: Large aftershocks outside the classical aftershock zone ［J］.Geophys Res,107. doi: 10.1029/200lJB000646.
Reasenberg P A,Simpson R W.1992.Response of regional seismicity to the static stress change produced by the Lama Prieta earthquake ［J］.Science,255: 1687-1690.
SHI Yao-lin,LIU Jie,Vere-Jones D,et al.1998.Application of mechanical and statistical models to the study of seismicity and of synthetic earthquakes and the prediction of natural ones ［J］.Acta Seismologica Sinica,11(4): 421-430.
Stein R S,Barka A A,Dieterich J H.1997.Progressive failure on the North Anatolian Fault since l 939 by earthquake stress triggering ［J］.Geophys J Int,128(3): 594-604.
Toda S.1998. Stress transferred by the 1995 M_W=6.9 Kobe.Japan.shock: Effect on aftershocks and future earthquake probabilities ［J］.J Geophys Res,103: 24543-24565.
Ward S N.1996.A synthetic seismicity model for southern California: Cycles,probabilities,hazards ［J］.J Geophys Res,101: 22393-22418.
Ward S N.1997.Dogtails versus rainbows: Synthetic earthquake rupture models as an aid in interpreting geological data ［J］.Bull Seism Soc Am,87: 1422-1441.
Ward S N.2000.San Francisco Bay area earthquake simulations: A step toward a standard physical earthquake model ［J］.Bull Seism Soc Am,90: 370-386.
Xing H,Makinouchi A.2002.Finite element analysis of a sandwich friction experiment model of rocks ［J］.Pure Appl Geophys,159: 1985-2009.
Xing H,Mora P,Makinouchi A.2004.Finite element analysis of fault bend influence on stick-slip instability along an intra-plate fault ［J］.Pure Appl Geophys,161: 2091-2102.
Wen Xueze.1998.Assessment of time-dependent seismic hazards on segments of active fault,and its problems ［J］.Chinese Science Bulletin,43(23): 1937-1950.
Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities.1995.Seismic hazards in Southern California: Probable earthquakes: 1994-2024 ［J］.Bull Seism Soc Am,85: 379-439.
Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities(WGCEP).2003.Earthquake probabilities in the San Francisco Bay region: 2002-2031.US Geol Surv Open-File Rept,03-214.
Zhang Peizhen,Deng Qidong,Zhang Guomin,et al.2003.Active tectonic blocks and strong earthquakes in the continent of China ［J］.Science in China(Ser D),46(suppl): 13-24.

[1]	于书媛, 黄显良, 郑海刚, 李玲利, 骆佳骥, 丁娟, 范晓冉. 2022年门源M_W6.7地震的同震破裂模型及应力研究[J]. 地震地质, 2023, 45(1): 286-303.
[2]	于书媛, 张国宏, 张迎峰, 丁娟, 张建龙, 范晓冉, 王绍俊. InSAR数据约束的2021年西藏比如M_W5.8地震同震滑动分布及库仑应力变化[J]. 地震地质, 2022, 44(5): 1190-1202.
[3]	岳冲, 屈春燕, 牛安福, 赵德政, 赵静, 余怀忠, 王亚丽. 玛多M_S7.4 地震对周边断层的应力影响分析[J]. 地震地质, 2021, 43(5): 1041-1059.
[4]	徐晓雪, 季灵运, 朱良玉, 王光明, 张文婷, 李宁. 漾濞M_S6.4地震同震形变特征及发震构造探讨[J]. 地震地质, 2021, 43(4): 771-789.
[5]	王绍俊, 刘云华, 单新建, 屈春燕, 张国宏, 解朝娣, 赵德政, 范晓冉, 华俊, 梁诗明, 张克亮, 代成龙. 2021年云南漾濞M_S6.4地震同震地表形变与断层滑动分布[J]. 地震地质, 2021, 43(3): 692-705.
[6]	华俊, 赵德政, 单新建, 屈春燕, 张迎峰, 龚文瑜, 王振杰, 李成龙, 李彦川, 赵磊, 陈晗, 范晓冉, 王绍俊. 2021年青海玛多M_W7.3地震InSAR的同震形变场、断层滑动分布及其对周边区域的应力扰动[J]. 地震地质, 2021, 43(3): 677-691.
[7]	徐志国, 王君成, 王宗辰, 梁姗姗, 史健宇. 2019年11月14日印尼马鲁古海7.1级地震的震源机制及海啸数值模拟[J]. 地震地质, 2020, 42(6): 1417-1431.
[8]	章鑫, 杜学彬. 郯庐断裂带南段对近地表大地电流的分异性[J]. 地震地质, 2020, 42(4): 909-922.
[9]	李玉江, 石富强, 张辉, 魏文薪, 徐晶, 邵志刚. 川滇地区主要断裂带上的库仑应力变化及其对地震危险性的指示[J]. 地震地质, 2020, 42(2): 526-546.
[10]	张群伟, 朱守彪. 华北地区主要断裂带上的库仑应力变化及地震活动性分析[J]. 地震地质, 2019, 41(3): 649-669.
[11]	惠春, 潘华, 徐晶. 以鲜水河断裂带中-北段为例探讨强震活动对活动断层大震复发行为的影响[J]. 地震地质, 2018, 40(4): 861-871.
[12]	石峰, 何宏林, 周本刚, 魏占玉, 毕丽思. 马尼拉海沟地震海啸对中国大陆的影响[J]. 地震地质, 2018, 40(3): 579-589.
[13]	程佳, 徐锡伟. 巴颜喀拉块体周缘强震间应力作用与丛集活动特征初步分析[J]. 地震地质, 2018, 40(1): 133-154.
[14]	靳志同, 万永革, 黄骥超, 李祥, 张珊珊. 2015年新疆皮山M_W6.4地震对周围地区的静态应力影响[J]. 地震地质, 2017, 39(5): 1017-1029.
[15]	万永魁, 刘峡, 沈军, 王雷, 李妍. 汶川地震前龙门山及其周缘断裂形变运动与应力累积的数值模拟[J]. 地震地质, 2017, 39(4): 853-868.