关键词: 水库地震, 建筑物易损性, 震害预测

Abstract: Reservoir earthquake has different characteristics of damage for its shallower depth and smaller magnitude to natural moderate earthquakes.In actual reservoir earthquakes,the damage to buildings is much heavier as the high frequency part of ground motion attenuates slowly.So existing statistical vulnerability matrix could not be used to estimate damage losses.In mainland China,scientists have monitored the reservoir earthquake since 1960s,and as many as over 20 seismic events were considered to be reservoir earthquakes.However there is not enough quantitative information to analyze the building vulnerability.Therefore,an approach is proposed in the paper,in which the natural earthquake vulnerability matrix is used to deduce the suitable vulnerability for reservoir earthquakes.Magnitude, epicenter depth and intensity are regarded as classification standard while K-means clustering adopted. Then the selected matrixes are modified by a set of regional macroeconomic factors.The method was developed in early 1990s based on the relationship between regional macroeconomic development level and seismic damage.Three parameters,population density,per capita GDP and proportion between the three levels of industries are divided into three brackets.Each bracket has weighting factor from AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process).After data preparation,one important parameter named closeness tolerance is calculated by the Hamming distance algorithm of fuzzy mathematics,in which the parameter reflects difference of two regions in macroeconomic development as well as the reliability or vulnerability of buildings to earthquake.For a group of closeness tolerances among selected matrixes and aimed area,the summation of multiplication between vulnerability probabilities and closeness tolerances is the aimed area's vulnerability value under certain intensity.Compared with the standard matrix and building vulnerability to natural earthquakes in southwestern China,the new vulnerability value is higher and buildings in developed region have better reliability than those in poverty areas.

Key words: reservoir earthquake, buildings vulnerability, earthquake damage prediction